68 Trading Plan (01/05 - 07/05/2023) - Sideways Awaiting FOMC
Last week's trading plan was relatively successful, particularly with catching the bottom of altcoins. Although our plan to short BTC didn't activate due to price volatility, the strategy for bottom-fishing altcoins worked quite well.
BTC Plan:
Our plan to short BTC didn't materialize as the price surged through support, then dumped sharply and bounced again. No valid short setup was found under these conditions.
ID Plan:
The ID bottom-fishing strategy was effective, with the price pumping back up by +15% from entry.
HIGH Plan:
HIGH also yielded a +13% take profit.
After these plans, no additional trades were called on the channel as the market lacked volume and remained sideways.
Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis for the Coming Week
The weekly chart shows BTC still facing selling pressure from the 30,000 - 32,000 USD resistance zone. The previous week’s candle was a strong bearish engulfing pattern, nearly negating the prior bullish momentum. The price found support at 27,000 USD. This week’s candle suggests buying interest, and if the price holds around the current level (29,200 USD), it indicates a balance between buyers and sellers. Despite a strong resistance and a bearish engulfing candle last week, buyers have managed to maintain the price and push it higher. Therefore, be cautious with short plans.
On the 3-day chart, a buying force reappears after a bearish engulfing pattern, followed by a reversal candle. However, this buying strength isn't confirmed until it breaks the previous high. We won’t rush into buying here, as buying and selling forces remain balanced.
For those considering a short, a potential scenario is:
We might expect the price to pump to liquidate supply zones, potentially offering a short opportunity around 32,000 USD. On the daily chart, we see clear divergence with higher highs in price versus lower highs in both AO and RSI.
In smaller timeframes, detailed plans can be set:
Currently, no BTC plans are suggested for the next few days due to price volatility. Expect the price to continue fluctuating until significant news comes in. Limit long/short BTC positions during this period.
BTC Dominance (BTC.D):
Last week, after identifying a fake breakout in BTC.D at a critical resistance level, we expected BTC.D to drop, creating room for a mini Altcoin Season. However, BTC.D has rebounded and surpassed resistance, indicating that Altcoins might continue to move sideways or decline in the near future.
Altcoin Plans
EDU:
EDU has been a hot token recently with a clean chart and good trading volume. Expect the price to stay above 1.451. You can consider scalping long positions with a stop loss below 1.38 USD.
ID:
After breaking support at 0.66 USD, ID is currently moving sideways. Two potential scalping plans for ID on the 1-hour chart:
- If the price holds above support after sideways movement, consider going long.
- If the price remains below support and breaks the previous low, consider going short.
Macro News
Following the holiday period, several important news items to watch:
- May 1, 2023, 21:00 (Vietnam Time): ISM will release the Manufacturing PMI index. Higher-than-expected figures will be positive for USD, and vice versa.
- May 2, 2023, 21:00 (Vietnam Time): JOLTs will release job openings data, reflecting the health of the US economy.
- May 3, 2023: Several important announcements:
- 19:15: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released, indicating monthly changes in non-farm and private employment based on payroll data from around 400,000 US business clients. Higher figures will be positive for USD.
- 21:00: ISM will release the Non-Manufacturing PMI index.
- Early May 4, 2023: The FED’s interest rate decision and FOMC meeting details could provide a clearer direction for BTC.
For ongoing updates and detailed trading plans, join the 68 Trading channel. See you in the next updates!
