68 Trading Plan (02/06 – 02/12/2023) – Will BTC Enter a Correction?

After a robust 40% rally in January 2023, is it time for Bitcoin (BTC) to enter a correction phase? Let’s dive into the technical analysis for the crypto market for the upcoming week with 68 Trading!

Review of Last Week’s Trading Plan

Review: 68 Trading Plan (01/30 – 02/05/2023) – Beware of Fed Rate Decisions

Last week, 68 Trading successfully took profit by anticipating BTC’s sideways movement and a decrease in BTC Dominance (BTC.D). We capitalized on numerous trades, including both spot and futures.

ROI from Trades Called on Telegram in January 2023:

With the market’s explosive growth over the past month, what’s next? Should we enter positions now? Let’s explore this week’s plan!

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Analysis and Outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) Next Week

Weekly Chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView as of February 5, 2023

This might be the first red candle for BTC after four consecutive weeks of green weekly candles. As noted in last week’s plan, BTC is approaching a critical resistance zone at $24,000 – $25,000, where momentum may temporarily stall. Indeed, BTC has struggled to break through this resistance, showing signs of weakness and subsequently moving sideways.

Daily Chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView as of February 5, 2023

The sideways range we identified two weeks ago ($22,600 – $23,700) remains intact. Despite two attempts to break out, these were false breakouts => Buying pressure at this price level is relatively weak.

This is understandable as BTC has surged significantly recently without a correction. Altcoins have also doubled or tripled from their lows, or even more. Additionally, macroeconomic factors remain unenthusiastic about crypto => Many still question whether this rally is just a rebound => Avoid FOMO buying at any price.

6-Hour Chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView as of February 5, 2023

The 6-hour chart reveals a divergence across four cycles, indicating a high probability of a correction. Note: A correction does not necessarily imply a trend reversal.

I expect BTC to correct to the $20,500 – $21,000 range (aligning with the EMA200). However, we will only see this if the price breaks down from the gray zone ($22,400) and successfully retests this breakout.

4-Hour Chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView as of February 5, 2023

If the price respects the support zone ($22,400), BTC will likely continue to move sideways within this range.

In my opinion, neither scenario is particularly compelling for trading BTC at this moment. Therefore, consider observing BTC and focusing on Altcoin trades for potentially better performance.

BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance)

Chart of Bitcoin’s Market Cap Ratio vs. Total Crypto Market Cap (Bitcoin Dominance), screenshot from TradingView as of February 5, 2023

Last week, I predicted a decrease in BTC.D, and it indeed dropped significantly as shown. This week, I expect BTC.D to either continue sideways or decrease further, which could favor Altcoin pumps.

Some Altcoin Plans

AVAX is moving sideways after breaking out from an accumulation triangle. Consider buying at the support area aligning with the trendline (price range $18 – $19) if it revisits and respects this zone. This plan will be discarded if the price breaks below the support + trendline.

4-Hour Chart of AVAX/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView as of February 5, 2023

Additionally, if you’re holding DOGE, check out my detailed plan on the 68 Trading Twitter:

Macroeconomic News

Last week, on February 2, 2023, the Fed announced a 0.25% rate hike. Although the rate increase continues, the pace has slowed compared to 2022, benefiting the crypto market and fueling the recent surge.

However, we must remain attentive to the Fed’s actions. On February 8, 2023, at 4 AM, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on future Fed policies. Pay close attention to this speech for a long-term macro perspective.

Additionally, on February 9, 2023, at 8:30 PM, the US will release initial jobless claims data, which is forecasted to be higher than the previous figures.

Conclusion

The above outlines my personal trading plan. I hope it provides additional insights for better trading decisions in the coming week. See you in the next updates.

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