68 Trading Plan (03/13 – 03/19/2023): What to Do Amidst the Market's "FUD Frenzy"?
The cryptocurrency market has just endured a tumultuous week, driven by a wave of negative news and a severe depeg of USDC, the second-largest stablecoin in the market. So, what’s next as the U.S. is set to release the February CPI report next week?
68 Trading Plan (03/13 – 03/19/2023): What to Do Amidst the Market's "FUD Frenzy"?
Review of Last Week’s Trading Plan
Hello everyone, last week we continued to favor short positions for BTC and altcoins. Both strategies proved to be relatively accurate as BTC and altcoins both experienced significant dumps in response to continuous negative news about Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and USDC’s depeg.
Review: 68 Trading Plan (03/06 – 03/12/2023) – A Week of Volatility with Major News
You can review the plan for BTC from last week:
Price Results:
The price movement was quite accurate:
Short OP Plan:
Results:
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Analysis and Forecast for Bitcoin (BTC) Next Week
1W BTC/USDT Chart on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on March 12, 2023
With this week’s red candle, BTC has formed a powerful reversal pattern with three strong red candles, completely breaking through the previous green candle. This is a significant indicator for planning primary short positions in the near term.
On the Daily Chart (D), we have a clear downtrend structure. Here are two plans you can follow in the medium term:
Plan 1:
1D BTC/USDT Chart on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on March 12, 2023
BTC has broken through the 21,600 and 20,600 USD support levels. In Plan 1, the price will likely range sideways, then test the 21,600 USD area. We will enter short if the price rejects this level (which will act as resistance).
Plan 2:
1D BTC/USDT Chart on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on March 12, 2023
If the price ranges sideways and only tests the resistance at 20,600 USD before continuing to decline, you can enter short upon seeing rejection signals on a smaller timeframe (4H, 1H) at the 20,600 USD level or wait for a breakout below this range to short.
BTC.D
BTC.D failed to maintain the sideways range within the triangle and has broken down. If it breaches the support at 42.88%, BTC.D could continue to target 42.19% and 40%. In the context of BTC's decline, this will likely lead to significant drops in altcoins.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Index, screenshot from TradingView on March 12, 2023
Altcoin Plans
OP
1D OP/USDT Chart on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on March 12, 2023
OP has clear support and resistance levels at 1.60 (support) and 2.19 (resistance). However, the 4H chart is currently showing a downtrend. For scalping, we will primarily look for short opportunities according to the plan below:
4H OP/USDT Chart on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on March 12, 2023
Macro News
Next week will feature two critical news events that you should pay close attention to:
- March 14, 19:30 (Vietnam Time): The U.S. will release the February CPI report. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation, with a forecast of 6%, down from the previous reading.
- March 16, 10:30 AM: The U.S. will announce the initial jobless claims figures. The forecast is 205K, down from the previous 211K.
In addition to these updates, as mentioned at the beginning of this article, the depeg of USDC is a key concern and could significantly impact the market. Therefore, keep an eye on news related to USDC and Circle.
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