68 Trading Plan (08/05 - 14/05/2023) - Exercise Caution with the Market

Review of Last Week’s Trading Plan

Last week, our plan for BTC was to anticipate a sideways movement, and the market reflected this expectation accurately. Even with the FOMC news, BTC prices remained in a sideways trend.

BTC Plan:

1-hour chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on the evening of 07/05/2023

Outcome: The sideways plan proved to be relatively accurate.

In addition to the BTC plan, we had two other plans for Altcoins: scalp long for EDU and short for ID.

Scalp Long EDU Plan:

1-hour chart of EDU/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on the evening of 07/05/2023

The condition for a long position was a breakout above the $1.453 resistance level, but the price only moved sideways and faked a breakout. Therefore, a long position could not be initiated.

Short ID Plan:

1-hour chart of ID/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on the evening of 07/05/2023

As analyzed, ID broke through the support at $0.66 and is now moving sideways. We had two potential scalp plans for ID in the 1H timeframe:

1. If the price holds above the support after the sideways move, a long position could be considered.
2. If the price remains below the support and breaks the previous low, a short position could be initiated.

The price followed the second plan, and I entered a short position at the support break, resulting in a good profit:

1-hour chart of ID/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on the evening of 07/05/2023

Analysis and Forecast for Bitcoin (BTC) Next Week

1-week chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on the evening of 07/05/2023

The weekly chart still shows sideways movement just below the strong resistance zone ($30,000 - $32,000). If this week’s candle closes at the current level, it will be a balanced candle (with a lower wick indicating buying pressure, though not overwhelming, resulting in a red candle). However, with a few hours remaining before the candle closes, this analysis is tentative. We will revisit this candle at 7 AM tomorrow.

1-day chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on the evening of 07/05/2023

The daily chart also does not provide a clear picture. We have been in an uptrend, but the past two weeks have shown sideways movement. The $28,660 level is a critical price zone for planning. If BTC falls below this level, it might continue to dump. Conversely, if it holds or moves sideways above this level, the upside potential looks stronger.

For scalping BTC this week, consider the following short position plan:

1-hour chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on the evening of 07/05/2023

The price has broken out of an uptrend channel, retested, and is now moving sideways. To stay safe, wait for a further price decline and a breakout below the previous low of $28.5xx before considering a short position (scalping in a smaller timeframe).

BTC Dominance (BTC.D)

BTC Dominance (BTC.D), screenshot from TradingView on the evening of 07/05/2023

Last week, we anticipated BTC.D would decrease and lead to a dump, but it remained sideways. This has created challenges for Altcoins, especially with the recent meme coin surge attracting significant volume. This week, BTC.D may decline, but there is concern that BTC might also drop (a scenario that would be detrimental for the market).

Altcoin Plans

4-hour chart of ID/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on the evening of 07/05/2023

ID has corrected significantly after a strong uptrend. I plan to buy ID around $0.50 and $0.48, expecting a rebound if the price respects these levels.

SUI

1-hour chart of SUI/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on the evening of 07/05/2023

SUI is currently trading sideways in the range of $1.269 - $1.34. The key level to watch is $1.269. There are two plans for SUI:

1. If the price drops below $1.269 and then rebounds with a fake breakout, consider a long position.
2. If the price drops below $1.269, tests again, and continues to decline, consider a short position.

Macro News

On May 10, 2023, at 19:30 (Vietnam time), the US will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which directly reflects inflation. Higher-than-expected figures will be positive for USD, and vice versa.

On May 11, 2023, at 19:30 (Vietnam time), two important reports will be released:

• Unemployment Claims
• Producer Price Index (PPI)

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