68 Trading Plan (27/02 – 05/03/2023) – Cautiously Awaiting Price Reactions

68 Trading Plan (27/02 - 05/03/2023) – Cautiously Awaiting Price Reactions

Review of Last Week’s Trading Plan

Last week, our plan accurately predicted that BTC would trend sideways within the range of $23,500 to $25,200 and we anticipated opportunities to go long on altcoins. Several long/buy spot trades yielded good profits.

However, prices eventually dumped sharply and broke out of the sideways range. At this point, we had to accept that the plan was invalid. Therefore, we temporarily advised members to halt all long positions and await a new plan.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis for the Upcoming Week

The price has failed to break out convincingly from the weekly resistance level (around $24,200), resulting in two fake-breakouts. This indicates that selling pressure at this level still outweighs buying interest.

1W Chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on February 26, 2023

On the daily chart, we observe some positive signs with price holding above support at $22,800 and a rising trendline below. Thus, in the coming days, BTC might continue to trade sideways within the range of $22,800 – $24,000.

1D Chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on February 26, 2023

We have two plans for BTC:

Plan 1:

• Price returns to the $24,000 – $24,200 range and buying pressure weakens, with small timeframe sell signals appearing. This entry is early and riskier.
• Price breaks below support and the trendline, then retests this level (around $22,800 – $23,000). This would confirm the Head and Shoulders pattern.

Price rebounds to the $24,000 – $24,200 range with weak volume. A Head and Shoulders pattern might form, leading to a reversal back to the $23,000 level or lower.

1D Chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on February 26, 2023In this scenario, we could enter a short position when:

Plan 2:

• Price respects the $22,800 support and the lower trendline.
• Price breaks above $24,200 strongly.

Price trades sideways in the $22,800 – $24,200 range, respects support, retests the trendline, and then continues the uptrend.

1D Chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on February 26, 2023For this plan to activate, we need two critical signals:

Therefore, our main focus now is to wait for reactions at the critical price levels of $22,800 and $24,200.

BTC Dominance (BTC.D)

BTC Dominance Chart, screenshot from TradingView on February 26, 2023

As per last week’s plan, BTC.D remains bullish and it’s advisable to reduce altcoin positions. The reason is clear: whether BTC rises or falls, altcoins generally perform poorly when BTC.D is up. Currently, BTC.D is moving sideways on the daily chart with few signals. However, it's likely that BTC.D might experience a slight correction before breaking upwards to continue its prior trend (higher probability).

Plans for Altcoins

DYDX

1W Chart of DYDX/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on February 26, 2023

DYDX has broken resistance on the weekly chart and is showing respect for the old resistance level (now support at $2.3). We can anticipate a potential breakout after DYDX consolidates.

For DYDX, consider the following plans:

Plan 1: Price breaks above the daily resistance and trendline (around $2.9), then retests.

Plan 2: Price continues to consolidate and returns to the $2.3 – $2.5 range for liquidity.

1D Chart of DYDX/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on February 26, 2023

In addition to technical analysis, DYDX also benefits from the recent FUD surrounding Binance Australia’s closure of trader positions. The decentralization of exchanges continues to be a significant concern in the community.

BLUR

BLUR also has a promising setup on the 4H chart.

1D Chart of BLUR/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on February 26, 2023

You can wait for a breakout above the resistance at $0.88, followed by a retest, to enter a long position. This setup will be invalid until the price breaks out of the $0.88 resistance.

Macro News

Next week, there aren’t many major news events to watch. Focus on these two important updates:

• On February 28, 2023, at 22:00 (Vietnam time), the Conference Board (CB) will release consumer confidence data. Higher numbers indicate stronger consumer confidence. If the data is higher than expected, it will be seen as positive for the USD, and vice versa.
• On March 2, at 20:30, the US will announce Initial Jobless Claims data. Higher than expected figures will be negative for the USD, and vice versa.

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