68 Trading Plan (March 27 - April 2, 2023) – Awaiting Bitcoin Buys and Planning for Altcoins
After a "crazy" week in the crypto market filled with numerous events, let's see what the final week of March 2023 has in store for Bitcoin and altcoins as we wrap up both the month and the first quarter of 2023.
Review of Last Week's Trading Plan
Last week was challenging for me as most of the planned trades didn’t pan out, which is why you may have noticed fewer calls on the channel.
See Previous: 68 Trading Plan (March 19 – March 26, 2023) – Bull Trap or Uptrend?
The most effective plan was the short on LQTY, which hit our target after a couple of retracements:
4-hour chart of LQTY/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on March 26, 2023.
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Analysis and Outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) Next Week
If this week's candle closes around $27,700, we might see the market continue to consolidate (balanced buying and selling pressure). However, the trend remains bullish with a strong green candle ahead and the price closing above the EMA (89) - the blue line.
Weekly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on March 26, 2023.
On the 3-day chart, there's a divergence where the price is making new highs while the RSI is creating lower highs. We should avoid longing at the current price and wait for a price correction. Note: a correction is different from a trend reversal.
3-day chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on March 26, 2023.
Based on the larger time frame analysis, the main plan is still to wait for a long opportunity.
On the 4-hour chart, we see only sideways movement. Ideally, we could wait for the price to break resistance and then long with the trend. However, due to the divergence on the 3-day chart, I expect a price correction, which might offer a better entry around $25,000.
4-hour chart of BTC/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on March 26, 2023.
BTC Dominance (BTC.D)
BTC.D has continued its strong upward trend. Currently, it's challenging to expect significant gains from altcoins due to the capital flow being pulled into BTC. I anticipate BTC.D will reach 48% and then reverse, providing altcoins with a better opportunity for growth.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) index, screenshot from TradingView on February 26, 2023.
Altcoin Plans
APE
APE is showing a strong upward trend on the weekly chart, and recent declines might just be a correction (the price is still respecting key levels and remains in demand zones). However, be patient, as buying at current levels comes with a high stop-loss risk of up to 20%.
Weekly chart of APE/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on March 26, 2023.
Consider setting a buy-limit order in the $3.30 - $3.50 range for a potentially better entry.
Daily chart of APE/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on March 26, 2023.
ARB
On the 4-hour chart, ARB has broken through resistance and is currently retesting it. I will look to long if the price respects the former resistance (now support) at $1.26. ARB is also forming a potential double-bottom pattern.
4-hour chart of ARB/USDT on Binance Futures, screenshot from TradingView on March 26, 2023.
Macro News
Next week should be relatively quiet with not many market-impacting news items.
On March 30, 2023, keep an eye on:
- 7:30 PM (VN time): U.S. GDP data (quarter-on-quarter).
- 7:30 PM (VN time): U.S. Initial Jobless Claims.
Additionally, on March 31, 2023, at 7:30 PM (VN time), the U.S. will release the PCE Core index, which is also related to inflation.
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