Bloomberg Analyst Predicts a 65% Chance of Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval
Financial analyst James Seyffart from Bloomberg has raised the probability of SEC approval for a Bitcoin spot ETF to 65%, citing recent positive developments.
Bloomberg Analyst Predicts a 65% Chance of Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval
In a Twitter post on August 3rd, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart suggested that the likelihood of a Bitcoin spot ETF being approved by the SEC in 2023 has increased from 50% to 65%.
Based on recent events and new information @ericbalchunas and I are officially increasing our spot #Bitcoin ETF approval odds to 65%. That's from 50% a couple weeks ago and 1% a few months ago. pic.twitter.com/VBLG8EYfoP
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 2, 2023
As reported by Coin68, recent filings related to Bitcoin ETFs have faced significant regulatory hurdles, with re-submissions from Wall Street financial entities, including BlackRock, Fidelity, WisdomTree, Valkyrie, VanEck, and Invesco, following SEC rejections on June 30th. All subsequent proposals have since been published in the Federal Register, signaling the start of countdown periods during which the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must review and make decisions within 45 days, 90 days, 180 days, and 240 days.
Bitcoin spot ETFs are currently under consideration by the SEC. Photo: Bloomberg
Timeline of SEC approval/rejection milestones for Bitcoin ETFs. Photo: Bloomberg
Coinbase, the nation's largest cryptocurrency exchange, remains favored by BlackRock and is poised to become the custodian of physical Bitcoin for the first ETFs if approved by the SEC. Additionally, the exchange was selected by Invesco, WisdomTree, Valkyrie, ARK Invest, and Fidelity last month, despite facing SEC lawsuits alleging the listing of cryptocurrencies as securities.
A related development regarding SEC approval involves Coinbase's CEO being instructed to halt trading of cryptocurrencies other than BTC.
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler emphasized that four other commissioners are also involved in researching proposals and reinforcing his decisions on crypto-related issues during recent hearings.
To bolster support for the Bitcoin ETF perspective, the SEC bluntly rejected Grayscale's request to convert GBTC shares into a Bitcoin spot ETF but faced a countersuit. The resolution of this dispute remains uncertain. Analysts also noted that if Grayscale prevails, the easiest path for the SEC would be to approve all Bitcoin ETF proposals, although the likelihood of this scenario materializing is low.
The competition among entities submitting registration applications for ETFs appears increasingly fierce. On August 2nd, the ETF race intensified with the registration of new contenders for Ethereum ETF Futures by all six organizations.
Previously, the SEC had greenlit Bitcoin Futures ETF products with 2x leverage in June.
