Bloomberg Expert Predicts Time Frame for SEC Approval of Bitcoin ETF in November
Bloomberg ETF experts suggest that the SEC could approve a Bitcoin ETF within the time frame of November 9 to November 17.
Bloomberg Expert Predicts Time Frame for SEC Approval of Bitcoin ETF in November. Photo: Bloomberg
In their latest analysis published early on November 9, Bloomberg's ETF experts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart maintain an optimistic outlook regarding the prospect of SEC approval for a Bitcoin spot ETF.
According to the experts, the SEC has received 12 proposals for establishing Bitcoin spot ETFs from major Wall Street firms and crypto companies, including BlackRock, VanEck, Bitwise, WisdomTree, Valkyrie, Fidelity, Invesco, ARK Invest, Global X, Hashdex, Franklin Templeton, and Grayscale.
SEC evaluating Bitcoin spot ETF proposals. Photo: Bloomberg (11/09/2023)
Although the SEC has twice postponed consideration of some of these proposals, following Grayscale's significant legal victory before the SEC in August, forcing the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to reconsider their proposal, Balchunas and Seyffart believe the probability of approving a Bitcoin spot ETF between now and January 10, 2024, stands at 90%.
TLDR, I think
— db (@tier10k) November 8, 2023
An ETF cannot be approved whilst it is in the comment period
If the SEC wants to be 'fair' and approve all spot applications at the same time then it would have to do so when there are no outstanding filings in a comment period
Which is between 9th-17th Nov,… https://t.co/O29eDPmxPS
Additionally, there is a specific window from November 9 to November 17 for all 12 Bitcoin spot ETF proposals to be approved simultaneously. The analysts argue that the SEC is under pressure to maintain fairness in its rulings, hence the potential approval of all 12 proposals to ensure this.
The opportunity is ripe, as November 8 (U.S. time) marked the deadline for the SEC to solicit public opinion on several Bitcoin ETF proposals as previously announced by the commission, with November 17 being the deadline for the SEC to make its initial ruling on Hashdex and Franklin Templeton's proposals.
However, Seyffart clarified that even if this timeframe ends, the SEC could still decide to approve the initial batch of nine proposals on Bloomberg's expert list by January 10, 2024, or conversely, reject all. "Nothing is guaranteed," he wrote.
This is the division that works with issuers on their prospectuses. And the division behind all of those #bitcoin ETF amendment filings we’ve seen in the last month. https://t.co/BVDx4JvWVq
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023
Another signal indicating the imminent approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF by the SEC, according to Seyffart and Balchunas, is the SEC's recent publication of investor education content by the Division of Corporation Finance, where they directly receive and resolve Bitcoin ETF proposals.
Under the leadership of Chairman Gary Gensler, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has yet to approve any Bitcoin spot ETFs, instead only approving products utilizing futures of the world's largest cryptocurrency. Gensler cited the cryptocurrency industry's prevalence of fraud and market manipulation as reasons for rejecting spot ETF proposals.
However, CoinDesk reported on November 9 that Grayscale has initiated discussions with the SEC regarding their Bitcoin ETF proposal. Grayscale's Legal Director Craig Salm stated the company has made significant positive developments, along with other organizations such as BlackRock and Fidelity, and that "it's only a matter of time" before one is approved.
Bitcoin prices have surged since late October due to the prospects of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval, jumping from $26,800 to a new 2023 high of $36,863 on the morning of November 9. This is also the highest price level the cryptocurrency has reached since early June 2022, before the LUNA-UST crash occurred.
4-hour chart of BTC/USDT pair on Binance at 11:45 AM on November 9, 2023
