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BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
09/04/2025

Betting on XRP's 2017-Style Explosion in 2025 Could Be Extremely Risky

XRP — one of the oldest cryptocurrencies on the market — is once again in the spotlight as some analysts compare its current price structure to the historic 2017 breakout. Back then, XRP surged more than 11,900% in just one year, driven by intense euphoria and strong investor conviction. However, the 2025 landscape looks completely different, making a repeat of that parabolic run far less likely. Long-term holders lack conviction One key difference between 2017 an

Betting on XRP's 2017-Style Explosion in 2025 Could Be Extremely Risky

XRP — one of the oldest cryptocurrencies on the market — is once again in the spotlight as some analysts compare its current price structure to the historic 2017 breakout. Back then, XRP surged more than 11,900% in just one year, driven by intense euphoria and strong investor conviction. However, the 2025 landscape looks completely different, making a repeat of that parabolic run far less likely.

Long-term holders lack conviction

One key difference between 2017 and today lies in investor sentiment. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data from Glassnode shows that in 2017, XRP's long-term holders remained firmly in the Euphoria–Greed zone throughout the bull cycle, holding onto profits well past the peak. By contrast, 2025 data shows holders have already shifted into the Belief–Denial phase, reflecting hesitation and doubt. This pattern more closely resembles the 2021 cycle than 2017, when excitement quickly gave way to skepticism.

XRP/BTC remains far below its former peak

Another major difference is the XRP/BTC pair. During the 2017 bull run, XRP gained over 3,700% against Bitcoin, cementing its status as one of the few large-cap altcoins with a compelling cross-border payments narrative. Yet in 2025, the XRP/BTC pair remains roughly 90% below its all-time high, stuck in a long-term distribution zone that has repeatedly capped rallies.

Competition is fiercer than ever

Compared to 2017, XRP now faces far more intense competition. Ethereum ($ETH), Solana ($SOL), Sui ($SUI), and even stablecoins all play significant roles in the cross-border payments space. This makes it much harder for XRP to attract the kind of strong capital inflows it saw in the past.

Conclusion

While some chartists still project XRP could reach $20 this cycle, market reality tells a different story. With weakening holder conviction, underperformance against Bitcoin, and increasingly stiff competition, betting on XRP to replicate its 2017 explosion in 2025 may be an extremely risky strategy.