Bitcoin $1M by 2030 “Mathematically Impossible,” Says 10x Research

What happened: Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, challenged the popular forecast that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030. He calculated that achieving such a price would require roughly $15 trillion in net inflows over four years—about 25% of the entire U.S. stock market's value. Thielen notes that past inflows of $1 trillion only brought Bitcoin’s market cap to $1 trillion, and a $20 trillion market cap would surpass the value of all global gold reserves.

Why it matters: Thielen’s analysis directly counters bullish narratives from industry figures like Brian Armstrong, Jack Dorsey, and Cathie Wood. He frames his view as cautious rather than bearish, suggesting that $100,000 would already be a significant milestone. Bulls argue that alternative scenarios—such as hyperbitcoinization or fiat debasement—could drive prices higher without such capital inflows, but Thielen’s critique is rooted in historical capital movement data.

Source: Cointelegraph Magazine