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BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
11/01/2025

Bitcoin Enters "Capitulation" Phase Around $100,000, Major Volatility Incoming

Bitcoin closed October down 3.7%, marking its worst monthly performance since 2018. After an "Uptober" that markets had hoped would surge, sentiment has turned bearish as spot Bitcoin ETF outflows continued through the final week of the month, adding to selling pressure. According to data from Farside Investors, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $679 million in outflows in just two days (October 30–31). On-chain analytics platform Glassnode noted that this trend reflects

Bitcoin Enters "Capitulation" Phase Around $100,000, Major Volatility Incoming

Bitcoin closed October down 3.7%, marking its worst monthly performance since 2018. After an "Uptober" that markets had hoped would surge, sentiment has turned bearish as spot Bitcoin ETF outflows continued through the final week of the month, adding to selling pressure.

According to data from Farside Investors, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $679 million in outflows in just two days (October 30–31). On-chain analytics platform Glassnode noted that this trend reflects "selling pressure from traditional financial investors and weakening institutional demand".

Notably, this occurred even as the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a rate cut — a macro factor that has historically supported Bitcoin's price. However, the Fed's hawkish tone heading into the December meeting quickly cooled bullish sentiment, pushing investors back into a cautious stance.

Crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows commented:

"Bitcoin is going through a phase of 'time-based capitulation'. To maintain the uptrend, BTC needs to hold above the $100,000 level. A weekly close below that would confirm a downtrend."

In agreement, trader Daan Crypto Trades argued that a significant move will only materialize once Bitcoin clearly breaks out of its current range — with the two key levels to watch being $107,000 and $116,000.

Bollinger Bands Signal a "Volatility Storm" Is Coming

According to analyst Matthew Hyland, the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart has compressed to its "most extreme level in Bitcoin's history", signaling that a major move is imminent.

This aligns with an earlier warning from John Bollinger, the indicator's creator, that the market should "pay particular attention" to volatility levels in Bitcoin and major altcoins.

Historical data from CoinGlass shows that November is typically Bitcoin's strongest month, with an average gain of 42.5% since 2013. Even so, traders are maintaining a defensive posture until a clear breakout signal emerges.

Summary:
Bitcoin is in a tense consolidation phase around the $100,000 mark, amid weakening institutional flows and technical indicators pointing to extreme volatility ahead. The coming month of November could be a pivotal turning point — determining whether the market explodes back to the upside or continues into a deeper correction.