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BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
11/18/2024

Bitcoin Hits $90K — Have Retail Investors Started to FOMO?

With Bitcoin once again entering price discovery, market participants are wondering whether retail FOMO (fear of missing out) has begun. Could we be on the verge of seeing retail investors flood the market the way they did in previous bull cycles? We'll break down the current Bitcoin market situation and near-term outlook using data on active address counts, historical cycles, and other market indicators. Retail investor interest

Bitcoin Hits $90K — Have Retail Investors Started to FOMO?

With Bitcoin once again entering price discovery, market participants are wondering whether retail FOMO (fear of missing out) has begun. Could we be on the verge of seeing retail investors flood the market the way they did in previous bull cycles? We'll break down the current Bitcoin market situation and near-term outlook using data on active address counts, historical cycles, and other market indicators.

Retail Investor Interest Is Picking Up

One of the clearest signals of retail interest is the number of newly created Bitcoin addresses. History shows that when retail investors pile into the market, new address creation spikes sharply — typically marking the start of a bull cycle. Over the past few months, however, the pace of new address creation hasn't met expectations. Last year, we saw roughly 791,000 new Bitcoin addresses created per day, reflecting strong retail enthusiasm. By contrast, while new address counts have ticked up slightly recently, they're still well below the levels you'd expect at peak retail engagement.

Shifts in Google Search Trends

Google Trends tells a similar story. While searches for "Bitcoin" have increased over the past month, they remain far below the peaks seen in 2021 and 2017. Retail investors appear to be starting to pay attention — but we're nowhere near the mania levels of prior bull markets.

A Shift in Who's Holding

We're seeing Bitcoin transition from long-term holders to newer, shorter-term participants. This supply shift may signal the beginning of a new market phase — where seasoned holders start taking profits and distributing to new buyers. That said, the total volume of Bitcoin being transferred remains relatively low, suggesting long-term holders haven't moved into full distribution mode yet.

Spot-Driven Growth

A key feature of this Bitcoin rally is that it's being driven by spot buying rather than leverage — unlike previous bull cycles. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has only grown modestly, a far cry from the levels seen before the FTX collapse in 2022, when open interest was running extremely high. The market's relatively low dependence on leverage this time around reduces risk and contributes to greater overall stability.

Whales Are Accumulating

Interestingly, while retail address growth has been muted, the number of whale wallets (addresses holding 100 BTC or more) has been rising. Over the past few weeks, large-holder wallets have added thousands of BTC — worth billions of dollars. This signals that big players remain highly confident in Bitcoin's growth potential, even at all-time high prices.

Conclusion

Even as Bitcoin sets new all-time highs and captures broader attention, there are no clear signs yet of retail FOMO. That may actually be a good thing — it suggests we're still in the early stages of this bull cycle. Long-term holders are staying the course, whales are stacking more BTC, and leverage usage remains measured. Taken together, these indicators point to a healthy market that has room to run.

As the bull cycle matures, the market could see a powerful surge driven by a wave of retail participation — pushing Bitcoin to entirely new price levels.