Bull or Bear? Markets Panic as Bitcoin Drops Below the 365-Day Moving Average
BTC continues to weigh on investor sentiment after falling below the 365-day moving average (365-day MA) — one of the most important trend indicators in the crypto market. According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin slipped below this level on November 5th, after dropping sharply under $99,000 and bottoming out near $98,900. At the time of writing, the price has recovered slightly to around $101,800, but not enough to ease concerns among analysts. Bear Market Signal? Julio Moreno — Head of Res
BTC continues to weigh on investor sentiment after falling below the 365-day moving average (365-day MA) — one of the most important trend indicators in the crypto market.
According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin slipped below this level on November 5th, after dropping sharply under $99,000 and bottoming out near $98,900. At the time of writing, the price has recovered slightly to around $101,800, but not enough to ease concerns among analysts.
Bear Market Signal?
Julio Moreno — Head of Research at CryptoQuant — views the loss of the 365-day MA as a highly sensitive signal:
"This was the final confirmation of the start of the 2022 bear market. Price needs to reclaim this level as soon as possible."
This move also marks a decline of more than 20% from the all-time high of $126,000 set in early October. By traditional technical analysis standards, a 20% drawdown qualifies as a "technical bear market."
Or Just a Pullback Within an Uptrend?
Andri Fauzan Adziima — an analyst at Bitrue — believes the current concern is overblown. He argues this is merely the "fourth correction" within the 2025 bull cycle:
"History shows that after corrections of more than 20% during a bull market, BTC typically rebounds around 40% within 60 days. This is a normal flush-out, not the start of a prolonged crypto winter."
The Key Line in the Sand: $100,000
Many institutions still believe the market has not truly entered a bear phase until Bitcoin decisively breaks below the $100,000 zone.
Tom Cohen, CIO of Algoz Technology, commented:
"As long as price holds above $100,000, a Santa Claus Rally remains very much on the table. But a clean breakdown below that level could open the door to a more bearish scenario."
Macro Factors Could Be the Deciding Force
Two variables are commanding close attention from investors:
- President Donald Trump's policy moves and next steps
- The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December
These factors could deliver a major psychological catalyst in the final stretch of the year — and ultimately answer the question: Is the bull taking a breather, or has the bear woken up?