Can Ethereum Reclaim $4,500 in October?
Ethereum (ETH) is showing strong recovery signals after two weeks of intense volatility. After dropping to a two-month low near $3,435, ETH has bounced more than 15% and is currently trading around $3,920. Multiple technical indicators and on-chain data suggest the world's second-largest cryptocurrency could continue its upward momentum toward the $4,500 level in October. Bull flag pattern and 200-day EMA support On the daily chart, ETH is forming a bull flag pattern — a
Ethereum (ETH) is showing strong recovery signals after two weeks of intense volatility. After dropping to a two-month low near $3,435, ETH has bounced more than 15% and is currently trading around $3,920. Multiple technical indicators and on-chain data suggest the world's second-largest cryptocurrency could continue its upward momentum toward the $4,500 level in October.
Bull flag pattern and 200-day EMA support
On the daily chart, ETH is forming a bull flag pattern — a technical structure that typically appears during uptrends, signaling a consolidation phase before a breakout. A key support level sits at the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA 200), around the $3,500–$3,550 zone, where price has bounced during previous growth cycles.
If the current recovery holds, ETH could push toward the next resistance zone at $4,450–$4,500 in October. Some analysts, including traders FOUR and Luca, argue that a breakout above this zone would open the door to $4,750 — corresponding to the neckline of a double-bottom pattern — and potentially $5,200 by November.
Positive signals from MVRV data
Data from Glassnode shows Ethereum's MVRV Extreme Deviation Bands stabilizing around the mean of $3,900 — a level that previously acted as a springboard for strong rallies in early 2021, mid-2023, and early 2024. Each time ETH has touched this zone, price has tended to recover toward the +1σ band, currently corresponding to roughly $5,000.
According to on-chain analysts, this suggests ETH remains in a "healthy correction" phase of the bull cycle rather than entering a period of structural weakness. If support around $3,900 continues to hold, a recovery to the $4,500–$5,000 range by late October is entirely within reach.
Conclusion
With technical factors and on-chain data converging, Ethereum's outlook for October is tilting bullish. That said, investors should remain cautious about a potential pullback if ETH loses the $3,550 support level — a scenario that could drag price back to the $3,000–$3,200 range before a new rally takes shape.