W3BStation
Markets
BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
08/25/2024

Can Telegram-Linked Toncoin Recover After Pavel Durov's Arrest?

Over the past 24 hours, Toncoin (TON) has dropped sharply — falling as much as 25% to $5.24 on August 25 — after Pavel Durov, CEO of Telegram, was arrested by French authorities. Durov faces charges related to data privacy and cryptocurrency regulation violations. Telegram has played a central role in promoting and integrating Toncoin into its ecosystem, making Durov a pivotal figure in the narrative and future development of the coin. K

Can Telegram-Linked Toncoin Recover After Pavel Durov's Arrest?

Over the past 24 hours, Toncoin (TON) has dropped sharply — falling as much as 25% to $5.24 on August 25 — after Pavel Durov, CEO of Telegram, was arrested by French authorities. Durov faces charges related to data privacy and cryptocurrency regulation violations.

Telegram has played a central role in promoting and integrating Toncoin into its ecosystem, making Durov a pivotal figure in the narrative and future development of the coin. As a result, a number of TON traders panic-sold their holdings.

However, several technical and market factors suggest that TON may be setting up for a significant recovery in the weeks ahead.

TON Could Stage a Strong Recovery Like BNB

TON's current price decline looks similar to the volatility BNB experienced before Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao was sentenced.

BNB fell 13.50% before Changpeng Zhao (CZ) was sentenced in the United States on April 30. Yet as the legal situation settled, the token staged a strong recovery — surging nearly 35% from its lows to approach $700 by June 6.

BNB/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

When news of legal troubles breaks — especially involving high-profile figures like CZ and Durov — it typically triggers panic selling as traders rush to protect their positions from potential fallout.

But once the initial shock fades, the market tends to reassess the situation more rationally. In BNB's case, once the legal cloud around CZ began to clear, traders recognized that the legal issues, while significant, posed no existential threat to Binance or its ecosystem.

This sparked a sentiment shift from fear to optimism, as panic sellers started returning to the market and pushed BNB up 35%.

Related: Telegram Fantasy Football Platform Raises $1M in Seed Round

A similar psychological pattern could play out with Toncoin. Initially, Durov's arrest may be read as a major red flag, triggering a sharp sell-off as traders exit their positions.

However, if the market comes to view the arrest as an isolated incident that doesn't fundamentally undermine the Toncoin ecosystem, traders may start treating the price drop as a buying opportunity.

TON Bounces Off Rising Channel Support

On the technical side, TON is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, as seen on the daily chart.

The TON/USDT pair has bounced off the channel's lower trendline, which has served as strong support since the channel formed earlier this year.

TON/USDT daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Additionally, TON's daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sat at 37.54 on August 25, approaching the oversold threshold of 30 — a level that often precedes accumulation or a price rebound.

The upper trendline of the ascending channel is currently around $8.50. A move to that level would represent a roughly 50% gain, consistent with the bullish momentum the RSI reading suggests.

Rising OI and Funding Rate Signal Market Confidence

Futures market data for Toncoin also points to growing trader confidence. Following Durov's arrest, TON's open interest (OI) climbed to $303.62 million — its highest level since July. Meanwhile, the eight-hour funding rate hit a three-month high of 0.0101%.

TON open interest and funding rate. Source: Coinglass

The rise in OI indicates that more capital is flowing into TON's futures market, signaling increased interest and speculation about price direction. The positive funding rate shows that traders are increasingly willing to pay a premium to hold long positions in TON.

Furthermore, the rising funding rate suggests traders are betting on price appreciation, adding to the likelihood of a strong upside move. If this momentum holds, it could drive a rapid price increase — potentially pushing TON toward the $8.50 target and beyond.