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BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
05/07/2025

China–U.S. Trade Talks Resume: Is Bitcoin Heading to $100,000?

On the morning of May 7, global risk assets — led by Bitcoin — surged explosively after news broke that China and the U.S. would hold high-level trade negotiations in Switzerland from May 9–12. Markets responded swiftly to this "de-escalation" signal, with crypto leading the charge. Bitcoin Surges, Leads the Recovery Immediately following the announcement from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Bitcoin (BTC) jumped more than 4.4% from a low of $93,390 to $97,7

China–U.S. Trade Talks Resume: Is Bitcoin Heading to $100,000?

On the morning of May 7, global risk assets — led by Bitcoin — surged explosively after news broke that China and the U.S. would hold high-level trade negotiations in Switzerland from May 9–12. Markets responded swiftly to this "de-escalation" signal, with crypto leading the charge.

Bitcoin Surges, Leads the Recovery

Immediately following the announcement from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Bitcoin (BTC) jumped more than 4.4% from a low of $93,390 to $97,732 — fully erasing the losses from the previous five days. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $96,866. ETH and SOL also joined the rally, gaining 5.6% and 5.74% respectively.

Total crypto market cap climbed back above $3 trillion, while Bitcoin's dominance hit 65% — its highest level since January 2021. The Fear & Greed Index leapt to 67, reflecting renewed optimism across the market.

Macro Catalyst: China–U.S. Talks and the Tariff Overhang

The planned meeting between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen alongside U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai is widely seen as a clear signal of a "tariff escalation pause" between the world's two largest economies.

After the U.S. imposed 104% tariffs on Chinese goods back in April, global financial markets fell into a state of heightened anxiety. The new development quickly eased those concerns, sending the yuan sharply higher and pushing U.S. equity markets back into the green.

According to U.S. Commerce Department data, the trade deficit for March 2025 hit a record $123.4 billion, prompting the Trump administration to reassess the effectiveness of its tariff strategy. An internal White House memo indicated that maintaining current tariff levels could cut retail profit margins by 15% and push inflation back up to 5.5%.

Institutional Capital Keeps Flowing Into Bitcoin

As the macro backdrop improved, institutional money continued quietly pouring into crypto. Data from SoSoValue shows that on May 6, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $425 million — bringing total net assets to $110.6 billion, representing nearly 6% of BTC's total market cap.

Notably, BlackRock continued to aggressively accumulate BTC. On May 6, the iShares Bitcoin Trust purchased an additional 5,613 BTC (worth $529.5 million), bringing its total holdings to 620,252 BTC. From April 21 to now, BlackRock has scooped up more than 47,000 BTC — a move that market participants are calling "buying near the top."

Policy Update: New Hampshire Pioneers a State Crypto Reserve

At the same time, New Hampshire Governor Chris Ayotte signed HB302 into law — authorizing the state to invest up to 5% of its budget in precious metals and digital assets. With a total budget of $15.4 billion, New Hampshire could potentially deploy between $280 million and $770 million into the crypto market.

This marks the first time a U.S. state has officially included Bitcoin as part of its strategic reserve — a major milestone in the legitimization and institutionalization of digital assets.

Risks Remain: The Fed Isn't Off the Table

Despite improving sentiment, markets haven't fully shaken off the risk posed by U.S. monetary policy. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in May has dropped to just 3.1%, with June's odds sitting at only 65%.

U.S. employment and inflation data continue to suggest the economy is still running "hot," making it difficult for the Fed to ease policy anytime soon. This keeps markets caught in a tug-of-war between rate-cut expectations and the central bank's resolute stance.

Conclusion: Is Bitcoin About to Hit $100,000?

At the intersection of macro trends, policy shifts, and institutional capital flows, Bitcoin is entering a new growth cycle. Rising dominance, low volatility, and strong ETF inflows are clearing the path for BTC to approach the psychological $100,000 level — as long as the Fed doesn't deliver a shock at its upcoming meeting.