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BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
11/20/2025

Fed December Rate Cut Odds Plunge to 33% as Bitcoin Falls Below $89,000

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its December FOMC meeting has dropped sharply to 33%, as "extreme fear" sentiment grips the crypto market and Bitcoin continues to slide below $89,000. From 67% to 33%: Confidence in a Rate Cut Vanishes in Just a Few Weeks According to CME data, in the first week of November, investors were pricing in a 67% chance of a Fed rate cut. However, as inflation figures continued to show no clear downward trend,

Fed December Rate Cut Odds Plunge to 33% as Bitcoin Falls Below $89,000

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its December FOMC meeting has dropped sharply to 33%, as "extreme fear" sentiment grips the crypto market and Bitcoin continues to slide below $89,000.

From 67% to 33%: Confidence in a Rate Cut Vanishes in Just a Few Weeks

According to CME data, in the first week of November, investors were pricing in as high as 67% odds of a Fed rate cut. However, as inflation figures continued to show no clear downward trend, markets sharply revised their expectations, pushing that number below 50% by Thursday and now down to just 33%.

On prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, rate cut expectations remain higher (roughly 70% and 67%, respectively), but traders broadly have grown more cautious. A report from The Kobeissi Letter suggests that persistent inflation concerns are pushing investors toward a scenario in which the Fed holds rates at their current level for longer.

Bitcoin Falls Below $89,000, "Death Cross" Pattern Triggers Bearish Signal

The crypto market continued to face heavy selling pressure as BTC lost the $90,000 level on November 20 and slipped below $89,000. Notably, Bitcoin has traded below its 365-day moving average (365-MA) for six consecutive sessions — a level many analysts consider key support.

Adding to the bearish picture, the 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA, forming a "death cross" — a classic technical signal that suggests further downside may be ahead.

Some analysts forecast BTC could pull back to the $75,000 range before bottoming out and recovering toward the end of 2025. Analyst Benjamin Cowen warned:

"If Bitcoin doesn't bounce within the next week, the market could see another leg down before recovering back to the 200-day SMA, forming a lower high in the broader cycle."

Sentiment Index Drops to "Extreme Fear"

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 16, reflecting an "Extreme Fear" reading. This is the lowest level of the year — just one point away from 2025's psychological low, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Negative sentiment combined with fading expectations of a Fed rate cut are driving capital out of the crypto market at an accelerating pace, raising concerns about the potential onset of a "mini bear market" phase.