Is $124,000 the Top? On-Chain Data Shows Bitcoin Still Has Room to Run
After setting an all-time high of $124,500, Bitcoin pulled back to around $111,000, rattling investors who fear the bull cycle has ended. However, analysts argue this dip is a textbook shakeout within a bull run — not a cycle top signal. 30 Cycle-Top Indicators Still "Neutral" Analyst Merlijn The Trader emphasizes that all 30/30 of Bitcoin's cycle-top indicators show no signs of overheating. History shows that major tops are typically accompanied by multiple on-chain indicators simultaneously flashing risk warnings — and that hasn't happened yet.
After setting an all-time high of $124,500, Bitcoin pulled back to around $111,000, rattling investors who fear the bull cycle has ended. However, analysts argue this dip is a textbook shakeout within a bull run — not a cycle top signal.
30 Cycle-Top Indicators Still "Neutral"
Analyst Merlijn The Trader emphasizes that all 30/30 cycle-top indicators for Bitcoin show no signs of overheating. History shows that major tops are typically accompanied by multiple on-chain indicators simultaneously flashing risk warnings — and that hasn't happened yet.
For example, the Puell Multiple — which measures miner profitability — sits at just 1.39, well below the 2.2 threshold that has historically signaled a cycle top. Similarly, the MVRV Z-Score — a metric comparing Bitcoin's price to its realized capitalization — remains in neutral territory rather than the extreme zone.
Long-Term Holders Remain Steadfast
On-chain data shows that selling pressure is currently coming primarily from newer investors. Those who have held BTC for under one month are sitting on an average loss of -3.5% and have begun to sell. In contrast, the Short-Term Holder cohort (1–6 months) is still up roughly +4.5% and continues to hold with conviction.
According to analysis from CrazzyBlockk, this is a structurally positive signal: Bitcoin is shifting from weak hands into the hands of holders with stronger conviction and a lower cost basis.
Market "Healthier" After Flushing Leverage
During the recent correction, approximately $70 million in long positions were liquidated, causing Open Interest (OI) on Binance to drop sharply. Data from CryptoQuant shows that net selling volume also surged, reflecting a flight from leveraged buyers.
Analyst Amr Taha noted: "Clearing out overleveraged positions makes the market healthier. Once OI resets, the probability of a recovery increases if price reclaims key levels."
Technical Outlook: $150,000 Still in Sight
On the weekly chart, the recent drop was only a 12% correction — smaller than the 20–30% pullbacks seen earlier in this bull run. Price remains above the 20-week EMA at ~$108,000, which serves as a key dynamic support level.
If Bitcoin holds the 20-week EMA, a scenario where it returns to $125,000 and pushes toward a $150,000 target in 2025 remains entirely plausible. If that level breaks, the next support sits at the 50-week EMA around $95,300 — a zone that has historically marked the bottom of major corrections within bull markets.
Conclusion
The pullback from $124,000 to $111,000 may unnerve short-term investors, but the broader picture — both on-chain and technically — shows the market remains in an uptrend. Shaking out weak hands and excess leverage is precisely the foundation Bitcoin needs to build its next leg up, with $150,000 as the longer-term target.