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BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
10/21/2026

JPMorgan Projects 10% Annual Bitcoin Returns Over Next Decade

What happened: JPMorgan Asset Management released its first long-term bitcoin forecast, projecting a 10% compounded annual return for BTC over the next 10 years, with an arithmetic average of 20.

JPMorgan Projects 10% Annual Bitcoin Returns Over Next Decade

What happened: JPMorgan Asset Management released its first long-term bitcoin forecast, projecting a 10% compounded annual return for BTC over the next 10 years, with an arithmetic average of 20.9%. The report estimates annualized volatility at 55%, significantly higher than gold's 17%. Despite the strong return outlook, JPMorgan excludes bitcoin from its main portfolio models due to unstable correlations with other assets.

Why it matters: This is the first time a major Wall Street institution has included bitcoin in its annual long-term capital market assumptions, signaling growing mainstream acceptance. The projected return outpaces JPMorgan's forecasts for U.S. large-cap stocks (7.5%), gold (5.5%), and traditional 60/40 portfolios (7%). However, the high volatility estimate may deter risk-averse investors, and some industry voices argue that bitcoin's volatility is on a long-term decline.

Source: The Block