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BTC $96,420 +2.34% ETH $3,280 +1.82% SOL $185.40 -0.92% BNB $642.50 +0.45% XRP $2.18 +3.12% DOGE $0.082 -1.50% ADA $1.05 +0.80% AVAX $42.10 +1.15%
11/11/2024

Market Growth (Part 1): Toward the $200,000 Milestone, Bitcoin Enters a New Era

On November 10, Bitcoin's price surpassed the $80,000 mark, setting a new all-time high. Year-to-date, Bitcoin has surged more than 84%, making it the best-performing asset globally and outpacing traditional assets like gold. Bitcoin has consistently set new price highs during each bull cycle. So after the 2024 halving, how high can Bitcoin go? VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, whose firm is one of the largest ETF managers in the world, recently stated in an interview:

Market Growth (Part 1): Toward the $200,000 Milestone, Bitcoin Enters a New Era

On November 10, Bitcoin's price surpassed the $80,000 mark, setting a new all-time high. Year-to-date, Bitcoin has surged more than 84%, making it the best-performing asset globally and outpacing traditional assets like gold. Bitcoin has consistently set new price highs during each bull cycle. So after the 2024 halving, how high can Bitcoin go?

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, whose firm is one of the largest ETF managers in the world, recently stated in an interview: "My base case is that Bitcoin's total value will ultimately equal half the value of above-ground gold, which puts its potential price at around $300,000. Retail investors are genuinely piling into Bitcoin ETFs."

That said, I believe that thanks to the ripple effects of Trump's return to the White House, Bitcoin could hit $200,000 in this current rally.

Bitcoin's New Era: A National Strategic Reserve Asset

The primary reason Bitcoin could break through $200,000 is that it has entered a new narrative phase. Having already been recognized as "digital gold" by major financial institutions, Bitcoin is now emerging as a critical asset class — one that nations are treating as a strategic reserve asset.

On November 10, David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, posted on social media: "At least one sovereign nation is actively buying Bitcoin and has broken into the top 5 largest holders. Hopefully we'll hear more about them soon."

This aligns with information I've received from sources indicating that a nation recently expressed serious interest in acquiring Bitcoin and has reached out to relevant institutions.

Currently, countries such as the United States, Russia, and China are all involved in Bitcoin holdings.

The U.S. government, for example, holds a substantial amount of Bitcoin — primarily seized through law enforcement actions. According to the latest data, the U.S. government currently holds more than 200,000 BTC, valued anywhere between $5 billion and $12 billion depending on market conditions.

At the Bitcoin Conference on July 28, Trump declared that if re-elected in November, he would fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler and halt the sale of all Bitcoin held by the United States. He also pledged to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve."

In Russia, Bitcoin has become a tool for circumventing sanctions that have restricted the country's access to the global financial system. Following U.S. sanctions, Russia actively sought alternative cross-border payment solutions, with Bitcoin playing a key role. In 2024, President Putin signed a law legalizing Bitcoin mining, emphasizing the use of the country's abundant energy resources to support the Bitcoin mining industry and secure a stable supply for national reserves and trade needs.

These moves signal that Russia is using Bitcoin and other digital assets as instruments to counter sanctions and strengthen financial sovereignty. On October 23, according to Bloomberg Terminal, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were discussed at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. Russian lawmakers are pushing for a system that would allow domestic miners to sell their tokens to international buyers, while domestic buyers could use Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to pay for imports — effectively circumventing Western sanctions.

China, meanwhile, is primarily involved with Bitcoin at the judicial level — particularly in cases involving the freezing and confiscation of illicit funds and money laundering. While there are no public records, certain judicial cases suggest the Chinese government holds Bitcoin in specific instances.

Two smaller nations have also been early movers in Bitcoin adoption. El Salvador began buying Bitcoin in 2021, and according to The Bitcoin Office, it continues to purchase one BTC per day, with total holdings of 5,929.7 BTC valued at approximately $470 million. Another notable case is Bhutan — a Himalayan kingdom where the national investment arm Druk Holdings has been mining Bitcoin since 2019 using hydroelectric power. Bhutan currently holds approximately 13,029 BTC, worth over $1 billion.

Bitcoin: A Key Piece on the Geopolitical Chessboard

Why are these sovereign nations increasingly turning to Bitcoin? The primary driver is a fundamental shift in the global geopolitical landscape.

Over the past decade, the global economy has experienced significant turbulence, with deglobalization and trade protectionism on the rise. The traditional safe-haven qualities of assets like gold have been seriously tested. The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike campaign in recent years has heightened market uncertainty, fueling demand for risk-hedging assets. Bitcoin, with its decentralized and immutable nature, is increasingly viewed by institutions and investors as a hedge against inflation and financial risk.

While Bitcoin is not backed by physical assets, its unique properties have earned it the title of "digital gold." As demand for gold has grown globally, nations like Russia, Turkey, and China have been stockpiling it to hedge against USD risk. This has also accelerated growing interest in digital assets. Bitcoin, as a complement to gold, offers countries a more flexible and convenient hedging option.

There are also rising expectations that if Trump returns to office, he will ease regulatory policies on digital assets. A pro-Bitcoin stance under a Trump administration would have far-reaching implications for Bitcoin's global legitimacy. If the Trump administration champions Bitcoin as part of its strategy, both U.S. allies and adversaries would have strong incentives to buy Bitcoin as a hedge — reducing dependence on the USD while providing an inflation hedge for their financial systems. This could significantly boost global demand for Bitcoin, pushing prices to new heights.

Toward the $200,000 Milestone

History shows that Bitcoin's price has surged sharply following each halving event. The halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 all triggered major price rallies. The 2024 halving is poised to serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin's next leg up, with the market peak expected to materialize within 12–18 months of the event.

In this cycle, the rise of institutional investors — combined with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States — has led the world's largest asset managers to increase their Bitcoin allocations. Institutional participation can provide additional liquidity and stability, acting as a major tailwind for Bitcoin's price in this bull run.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve has entered a new rate-cutting cycle, with the most recent FOMC meeting announcing a 25 basis point cut. According to the dot plot, the Fed is expected to maintain a rate-cutting environment through 2025, which will further support Bitcoin's price appreciation.

As of 2024, the global gold market is valued at approximately $13.5 trillion. Meanwhile, the market value of