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12/05/2025

OpenAI Could Lose More Than $140 Billion Before Turning a Profit – An Unprecedented Cash Burn

According to a new Deutsche Bank report, OpenAI — the company leading the global artificial intelligence wave — could face cumulative losses exceeding $140 billion before becoming profitable. This is being called an unprecedented cash burn in the history of technology startups. Shocking Financial Forecast: $143 Billion in Losses Over 5 Years Deutsche Bank cited data OpenAI presented to investors, showing that for the 2024–2029 period, the company projects: * $345 billion in revenue, but

OpenAI Could Lose More Than $140 Billion Before Turning a Profit – An Unprecedented Cash Burn

According to a new Deutsche Bank report, OpenAI — the company leading the global artificial intelligence wave — could face cumulative losses exceeding $140 billion before becoming profitable. This is being called an unprecedented cash burn in the history of technology startups.

Shocking Financial Forecast: $143 Billion in Losses Over 5 Years

Deutsche Bank cited data OpenAI presented to investors, showing that for the 2024–2029 period, the company projects:

  • $345 billion in revenue, but
  • $488 billion in costs, driven largely by compute and AI model infrastructure expenses.

This translates to a negative free cash flow of $143 billion over five years — and that figure does not include the rumored $1.4 trillion data center investment that has been making the rounds recently.

Previously, HSBC also estimated that OpenAI could burn through more than $210 billion in cash before 2030, reinforcing concerns that the current AI business model is still not sustainable.

User Growth Slowing Down

Alongside rising costs, Deutsche Bank also flagged signs that OpenAI's growth is entering a slower phase. Data from dbDataInsights shows:

  • The number of paying subscribers in major European markets has barely grown since May.
  • The explosive growth following ChatGPT's launch has run its course, and acquiring new users is proving increasingly difficult.

For a company valued at hundreds of billions of dollars with massive operating costs, slowing user growth is a risk worth watching.

A Cash Burn That Dwarfs Every Startup in History

In the report, Deutsche Bank compared OpenAI's projected losses against well-known startups that ran losses before turning profitable, including:

  • Amazon
  • Tesla
  • Spotify
  • Uber

All of them look "small" when stacked against OpenAI's cumulative projected loss of $143 billion — or the forecast losses of rival Anthropic.

Unlike major corporations that reported tens of billions in losses during crises (such as AOL Time Warner or AIG), OpenAI is still an early-stage company — which makes its cash burn scale all the more unprecedented.

AI's "Uncharted Territory"

Deutsche Bank characterizes OpenAI as venturing into "uncharted territory" — ground no startup has ever crossed before.
The company's path to profitability will depend on whether the next generations of AI models, new applications, and enterprise ecosystems can generate enough value to offset its enormous spending.

While AI is expected to be a world-changing technology, the economics behind it remain a major unknown that markets are watching more closely every day.