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11/24/2025

Quantum computers can't break Bitcoin's code — but they might break Bitcoin's politics

According to James Check, founder and lead analyst at Checkonchain, the greatest threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin isn't technological — it's the consensus politics of the community. In an X post on Monday, Check argued that Bitcoin is unlikely to reach consensus on freezing or disabling old addresses that haven't migrated to quantum-resistant ones. That means when quantum computers are powerful enough to attack, a large amount of lost or uncontrolled Bitcoin could be stolen and re-enter the market.

Quantum computers can't break Bitcoin's code — but they might break Bitcoin's politics

According to James Check, founder and lead analyst at Checkonchain, the greatest threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin isn't technological — it's the consensus politics of the community.

In an X post on Monday, Check argued that Bitcoin is unlikely to reach consensus on freezing or disabling old addresses that haven't migrated to quantum-resistant ones. That means when quantum computers are powerful enough to attack, a large amount of lost or uncontrolled Bitcoin could be stolen and re-enter the market.

Millions of Bitcoin at risk of exposure when a quantum attack strikes

Data from BitBo shows:

  • 32.4% of Bitcoin hasn't moved in the past 5 years
  • 16.8% hasn't moved in over 10 years
  • 8.2% has been dormant for 7–10 years
  • 5.4% has been dormant for 5–7 years

A large portion of this is believed to be permanently lost — but it still sits in addresses with no quantum protection.

Check made this argument in response to a comment from Ceteris Paribus of Delphi Digital, who contended that Bitcoin's quantum risk isn't a technical problem — it's a legacy management problem.

While the technology to create quantum-resistant Bitcoin addresses already exists — NIST-approved and referenced in BIP-360 — the core question remains: what do you do with the BTC stuck in old addresses?

The community must choose: let the coins be lost, or accept a controversial change

Cypherpunk pioneer Adam Back previously told Cointelegraph that the Bitcoin community will have to choose between:

  1. Disabling old addresses (an extraordinarily difficult consensus lift), or
  2. Accepting that those coins get stolen once quantum computers are capable enough.

Check believes the most reasonable path is to let those coins return to the market rather than trying to defend a system that's technologically beyond saving.

Back also noted that if a quantum attack does materialize, it could even force Satoshi Nakamoto — if still alive — to move his roughly 1 million BTC to avoid having it stolen.

That said, he expects Bitcoin won't face a genuine quantum threat for at least 20–40 years.

Some blockchains already have a solution — Bitcoin doesn't

While Bitcoin is unlikely to receive a backward-compatible patch, several other blockchain networks have recently made breakthroughs in this area.

Last July, researchers published a backward-compatible quantum-resistant solution for:

  • Sui
  • Solana
  • Near
  • Cosmos

Thanks to the properties of the Edwards-curve signature algorithm, they were able to build a zero-knowledge proof system that protects private keys from quantum attacks.

This approach does not apply to Bitcoin and Ethereum, which use different signature algorithms.

Conclusion

While quantum computers pose no near-term threat to Bitcoin, the bigger challenge isn't cryptography — it's whether the network can ever reach consensus to protect legacy addresses.

The fate of millions of "forgotten" Bitcoin may end up being a brutal political stress test for the entire network — long before it becomes a technical one.