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10/12/2026

SCOTUS Faces Unprecedented Amicus Wave in Prediction Market Case

What happened: The U.

SCOTUS Faces Unprecedented Amicus Wave in Prediction Market Case

What happened: The U.S. Supreme Court is being urged by a broad coalition—including the NFL, 39 state attorneys general, 140+ Tribal Nations, and major gaming associations—to take up the Flaherty v. KalshiEX case, which could determine the regulatory fate of prediction markets. The CFTC also issued an interim final rule last week, asserting jurisdiction over event contracts, while Kalshi has until November 9 to respond to the Court.

Why it matters: The convergence of state, tribal, and federal interests against prediction market platforms is highly unusual and could reshape the boundaries between gambling and financial derivatives in the U.S. The CFTC's move to define event contracts as swaps adds regulatory complexity, and the outcome may set precedent for platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, with implications for DeFi prediction protocols as well.

Source: CoinDesk