"The Most Hated Bull Run?" Bitcoin Reclaims $106,000 as Markets Rally on U.S. Government Shutdown Resolution Hopes
Bitcoin kicked off the new week on a strong note, climbing back above $106,000 as markets cheered the prospect of the U.S. government ending its record-breaking shutdown. Bitcoin wasn't alone — other risk assets also staged a solid recovery amid a return of economic news flow and improved investor sentiment. Market Catalyst: Government Reopening and a $2,000 "Tariff Dividend" On Sunday evening, President Donald Trump surprised markets by announcing a plan to send $2,000 to most Americans as a "dividend" from international trade tariffs. The move immediately drew comparisons to COVID-19 stimulus checks, when fresh cash injections flowed into markets and sent Bitcoin on a powerful bull run.
Bitcoin kicked off the new week on a strong note, climbing back above $106,000 as markets cheered the prospect of the U.S. government ending its record-breaking shutdown. Bitcoin wasn't alone — other risk assets also staged a solid recovery amid a return of economic news flow and improved investor sentiment.
Market Catalyst: Government Reopening and a $2,000 "Tariff Dividend"
On Sunday evening, President Donald Trump surprised markets by announcing a plan to send $2,000 to most Americans as a "dividend" from international trade tariffs. The move immediately drew comparisons to COVID-19 stimulus checks, when fresh cash injections flowed into markets and sent Bitcoin on a powerful bull run in prior cycles.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, "Stimulus checks are back," implying that this payout plan could further expand the money supply — a factor that historically pushed Bitcoin to all-time highs in previous cycles.
A Big Week: CPI, PPI, and Rate Cut Expectations
With the shutdown risk fading, a slate of key economic data is set to return — including CPI and PPI this week. These are the figures the Fed watches closely when making interest rate decisions. Markets are currently pricing in a 0.25% cut at the December meeting.
This has led many analysts to conclude that the current recovery could be the starting point for a new leg higher — though significant volatility remains a real concern.
The Big Money Picture: Global Money Supply Hits a Record
A new report shows that global money supply has reached $142 trillion, up 9.1% year-to-date — driven primarily by the U.S. and China. Abundant liquidity is a foundational driver of Bitcoin price appreciation, and that liquidity continues to expand.
Derivatives Traders Stay Cautious — Whales Are Both Selling and Accumulating
Despite the price rally, the derivatives market isn't fully convinced:
- Demand for put options spiked when price dipped below $100,000
- Traders believe the market could retest support levels
However, on-chain data paints a more constructive long-term picture:
- Many older whales sold their holdings through 2025
- But a new cohort of large wallets is aggressively accumulating again
- In a single day, "accumulator" wallets scooped up 50,000 BTC when price dipped below $100,000
CryptoQuant notes this doesn't resemble the "distribution phase" seen at the end of the 2021 cycle — rather, it looks like a rotation of capital between different whale cohorts.
"The Most Hated Bull Run"?
According to Mosaic Asset Company, U.S. equity markets are also breaking out against a backdrop of widespread fear. Multiple indicators are flashing "extreme fear" even as prices grind higher. As a result, they suggest this could be "the most hated bull market in history" — one where investors remain anxious even as the market keeps climbing.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is pushing higher through fear, bad news, and skepticism — yet macro liquidity tailwinds, fresh stimulus, and aggressive accumulation by large wallets are collectively building a foundation for recovery. If CPI comes in favorable and the government shutdown ends, Bitcoin could move to challenge the $107,000 – $110,000 range in the near term.