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08/06/2024

The US Presidential Election Is Now a 'Toss-Up' — Polymarket

According to Polymarket, the crypto prediction platform, the US Presidential election is currently in a "toss-up" state, per an August 7 post on X. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump still holds a slim lead with 51% odds, but Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is close behind at 48%. The shift marks a reversal in Trump's fortunes, as he had maintained a solid lead on the platform since June. Polyma

The US Presidential Election Is Now a 'Toss-Up' — Polymarket

According to Polymarket, the crypto prediction platform, the US Presidential election is currently in a "toss-up" state, per an August 7 post on X.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump still holds a slim lead with 51% odds, but Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is close behind at 48%. The shift marks a reversal in Trump's fortunes, as he had maintained a solid lead on the platform since June.

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction platform where users can bet on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrency. The estimates are based on more than $500 million worth of live bets placed on the platform in the contest to predict the winner of the US Presidential election in November.

The US presidential race is nearly dead even. Source: Polymarket

Related: US Senators Urge CFTC to Finalize Ban on Election Betting

According to Polymarket, users have wagered roughly $67 million on a Trump victory and about $54 million on a Harris victory. They have also placed hundreds of millions of dollars on low-probability, high-payout outcomes.

Around $46 million has been placed on the scenario — at 1% odds — that former First Lady Michelle Obama will become the 47th President of the United States.

Vice President Harris has been the expected Democratic nominee since July, when President Joe Biden decided not to seek a second term. Harris officially secured the nomination on August 6.

In national polls, the gap between Trump and Biden had widened significantly in July following a poor debate performance that raised questions about Biden's viability as a candidate. That trend reversed sharply after Biden stepped aside and endorsed Harris.

Polymarket has become the leading crypto betting market amid the surge in on-chain prediction activity surrounding the US election. In July, Polymarket surpassed $1 billion in total betting volume, a figure that has since grown to over $1.1 billion, according to Dune Analytics.

Polymarket is primarily used to predict political event outcomes, but the platform also hosts prediction markets for crypto, sports, business, and the 2024 Olympic Games.

Polymarket has been aggressively focused on growth this year, though the platform's founder is reportedly weighing the introduction of fees in the future.